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Mentre l’amministrazione Nordamericana guidata dal Tycoon Donald Trump, fa scattare i dazi per li importazioni estere, delineando una forte tendenza protezionista, il FMI commenta la decisione “Trumpista” e si esprime con queste parole: ”Tutti perdono in una protratta guerra commerciale”: non e’ positivo che ”le tensioni commerciali aumentino proprio in un momento in cui la ripresa globale e’ sostenuta dal commercio” – ”Incoraggiamo i paesi a lavorare costruttivamente insieme per ridurre le barriere e risolvere i disaccordi commerciali senza il ricorso a misure eccezionali”. L’austerity sulle importazioni di acciaio ed alluminio con un’ aumento dei dazi, toccherà il Canada, il Messico ma anche la UE, una sorta di “smacco economico” ai parters europei con i dazi su questi metalli che si attesterebbero del 25% e del 10% descritti come dazi attuati per ragioni di sicurezza nazionale. I paesi colpiti dai dazi sono in questo caso fra i più stretti alleati degli Stati Uniti d’America, i partners storici del paese d’oltreoceano. Trump sta mantenendo le promesse elettorali che vedrebbero come “comandamento numero uno” la grande America, paese in grado di decidere quello che le pare in base alle proprie esigenze economiche e commerciali proprio come lo fu qualche decennio fa. Resta comunque inevitabile lo scontro economico fra due titani da sempre amici: la recente UE e gli storici USA, con le recentissime e dure reazioni che spaziano da Londra a Parigi e che giudicano le misure prese dalla Withe House come pericolose ed ingiustificate. Anche i vicini di casa americani, i canadesi, promettono rappresaglie economiche come pure il vicino Messico. Per quanto riguarda i paesi dell’area Euro ecco le parole dell’ attuale Presidente UE, parole dure che presagiscono ritorsioni alla politica del Tycoon – “Questo è protezionismo puro e semplice, inaccettabile”. In effetti i vertici UE avrebbero già nella manica un asso in grado di colpire un prodotto simbolo degli USA: i jeans Levi’s oltre che le moto Harley od il Burbon del Kentucky. La UE sarebbe pronta a proteggersi con una ritorsione che avrebbe un valore per gli USA di ben 7,5 miliardi di dollari. Le prime tariffe sui dazi che l’ Unione Europea starebbe progettando di utilizzare per contrastare la rappresaglia economica nordamericana potrebbero partire dal 20 giugno 2018. “Risponderemo con tutti i mezzi a nostra disposizione”, ha affermato il presidente del Parlamento europeo Antonio Tajani, tuttavia Wilbur Ross segretario del commercio degli Stati Uniti si limita a minimizzare affermando che i dazi che la UE intenderebbe instaurare sarebbero comunque sia minimi e che eventuali contromisure studiate da questo paese avrebbero sull’economia USA un impatto alquanto limitato. -“Noi comunque continueremo a lottare contro gli abusi commerciali” queste le parole di Ross. Con questa decisione si starebbe dichiarando una sorta di guerra commerciale su scala globale, previsioni non certo ottimali che a nostra opinione porteranno ad un certo nervosismo dei mercati, guerra che avrebbe già scosso la borsa USA e tutte le maggiori piazze finanziarie del pianeta, in maniera maggiore che la recente situazione politica italiana. Una rappresaglia a suon di dazi che gli USA avrebbero solamente iniziato dato che Trump avrebbe preso di mira in un prossimo futuro anche le case automobilistiche in special modo quelle tedesche progettando di applicare a questi prodotti dazi di circa il 20%. In questo caso possiamo proprio dire che la lungimiranza Fiat nell’affare Chrysler abbia davvero funzionato. Un’altra idea del Tycoon sarebbe fare la guerra a suon di dazi anche su una lunga lista di prodotti High-tech provenienti dalla Cina a partire da metà giugno. Il rischio di escalation dei dazi è fortissimo ed il clima è veramente denso, tanto da preoccupare anche i lavori del G7 in corso in Canada. Ovviamente il tema dazi USA sarà una delle tematiche molto importanti in questa riunione dei leader dei paesi più potenti economicamente al mondo, forum al quale parteciperà anche il Tycoon americano che rischierebbe di trovarsi accerchiato dai vertici degli stati colpiti dai suoi dazi. Staremo a vedere come il Presidente americano se la caverà in questo frangente, sperando che le diplomazia riesca nel breve termine a risolvere questo problema piuttosto grave per la nostra UE. Nel frattempo anche il Messico ha promesso ritorsioni applicando dazi sulle importazioni di Mirtilli ed uva oltre che su prodotti che spaziano dall’acciaio alla carne suina. Terminando direi che stiamo assistendo ad un ritorno al passato che spero si risolverà quanto prima e nel migliore dei modi per tutti.

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Nicola Migliorini alias ADMIN è Direttore del blog WWW.MONDOOGGI.COM decide cosa e quando pubblicare, è un giornalista con incarico a 360 gradi

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