EDILIZIA TREND E PREVISIONI di Maira Alcantara

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Dopo anni di grande crisi, in primis quella del settore edile, disastro economico che si è “portato nel baratro” un po’ tutti i mercati ecco riapparire flebili raggi di luce nella zona Euro. Seppure con una tendenza piuttosto moderata il settore europeo relativo alle costruzioni starebbe recuperando terreno. Le analisi della tendenza economica per l’edilizia sarebbero state discusse in Olanda lo scorso giugno in occasione dell’ ottantatreesima conferenza Euroconstruct. Stando alle previsioni già il 2016 vide un lieve miglioramento della produzione nella zona euro con un 2,5 per cento e con un lieve aumento al + 2,9 per l’anno successivo. Nel complesso però le previsioni parlerebbero di un progresso al positivo anche per il 2018 con un + 2,4 per cento. Possiamo quindi tirare una media del triennio che si attesterebbe con un indice positivo ma per il 2019? Nonostante l’indice non ci riporti agli albori in cui la “bolla” edile fu potente possiamo prevedere, sempre secondo i dati Euroconstruct ancora un 2 per cento positivo, anche se si tratterebbe di un dato più modesto dei precedenti. La positività di quest’ultimo dato lascerebbe comunque ben sperare per il futuro. L’incremento maggiore registrato nel 2016 si è segnato relativamente al settore residenziale con una crescita di un buon + 5 per cento anche se le previsioni del settore residenziale segnerebbero una decrescita della tendenza rialzista appena citata, ovvero per essere più realisti si segnerebbe un trend sempre in espansione con incrementi che vanno dal + 3,7 per il 2017 al+  2,3 per il 2018 con un lieve abbassamento ma restando sempre in positivo per il 2019 con un + 1,7 per cento. La tendenza più forte l’avrebbe avuta l’edilizia residenziale nuova con un buon + 8,8 nel 2016, stimata in progressivo aumento anche per il 2018 a + 6,8 ma in rallentamento per il biennio 2018 – 2019. Contrariamente invece si rileva costante con tassi di crescita più modesti + 1,5 per cento annuo il settore delle ristrutturazioni che si prevede per primo raggiungerà il traguardo superando la soglia pre crisi ad iniziare nel 2017. Meno volitivo ma anche meno dinamica la fascia del settore non residenziale. Lo sviluppo di questa particolare frangia dell’edilizia dovrebbe, sempre stando agli analisti, crescere ma moderatamente confronto agli altri due settori con un trend pari al + 2,3 per il 2017 +1,8 per il 2018 e + 1,2 per il prossimo anno. Un ritardo nell’inizio della crescita per il settore delle nuove costruzioni che ha visto scalare di nuovo la tendenza nel 2016 con appunto, come già accennato un buon 2,5 positivo nel 2016 +2,8 per il 2017 per poi calmierarsi nel 2018 con un + 1,9 attestandosi ad un 1,0 positivo per il 2019, tuttavia nelle ristrutturazioni si conferma una previsione di crescita annua del 1,5 per cento positivo. Lo stato UE con la performance migliore nel settore edile sarà in questo triennio l’Ungheria che vedrà un tasso di crescita molto buono con un + 14,9 per cento questo grazie alla misure prese dal Governo Ungherese in merito allo stimolo all’ acquisto delle nuove abitazioni, seguirà l’Irlanda con una tendenza di crescita buona oltre il + 10 per cento annuo che dopo il 2016 si attesterà ad un +7,7 per cento annuo per il prossimo triennio, di seguito la Polonia con una media annuale di +5,5 per cento, la Repubblica Ceca con un + 4,3 ed il Portogallo con +4,1. Secondo il Cresme l’edilizia Italiana starebbe recuperando terreno in termini più modesti confronto agli altri paesi UE sopracitati con una ripresa di circa il+  2,5 per cento per il 2018, trainata dal mercato privato e dalle ristrutturazioni oltre che dagli incentivi messi in atto dal Governo. Il tutto permetterebbe un trend positivo del 4,8 per quest’anno e del + 4,2 per il prossimo 2019. Tendenze che se si realizzeranno effettivamente sono veramente speranzose considerando la negatività della crescita del biennio 2016 e 2017 rispettivamente con un punteggio negativo del -2,6 e del- 1,5. Da quest’anno quindi un po’ in generale i mercati italiani potranno continuare a sperare dato che appunto come accennato antecedentemente il settore edile risulterebbe essere una branca economica molto vasta, un mondo che comprende un indotto veramente ampio e variegato.

 

 

 

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