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2 febbraio 2019: questo particolare giorno potrebbe essere ricordato purtroppo dai posteri come un giorno infausto, in effetti oggi gli Usa pongono fine ad un celebre accordo sottoscritto da Michail Gorbaciov e Ronald Reagan che avrebbe avuto come finalità il disarmo per quanto riguarda il settore delle armi nucleari, quegli ordigni che potrebbero portare gli eventuali contendenti a non avere, nel caso di una terzo conflitto mondiale, ne vincitori e ne vinti. Tanto è cambiato dagli anni di quel trattato, gli Usa sono passati a divenire la sola potenza mondiale, rompendo il bipolarismo sul quale il mondo si era da sempre sorretto, un equilibrio che avrebbe portato un certo periodo di pace ma un equilibrio basato sulla teoria per la quale la pace sarebbe stata mantenuta se le due potenze di allora avessero mantenuto più o meno la stessa potenza nucleare, una teoria che sotto certi aspetti non “farebbe una piega” se non per il fatto che questa maniera di mantenere la pace fondata sul timore da ambo le parti avrebbe portato il mondo ad essere “seduto” su una polveriera mentre tranquillamente qualcuno sopra di esse si diletta fumandosi una sigaretta. La saggezza dei due uomini politici di allora Reagan e Gorbaciov portò le due nazioni contendenti a ratificare il famoso trattato, in seguito però l’impero sovietico crollò sotto il peso della propria imperfetta ideologia, sotto il peso della corruzione e sotto il peso di una folle spesa agli armamenti protratta negli anni della guerra fredda portando di conseguenza l’ impero URSS al disfacimento e la popolazione ad una forte sofferenza. Come accade sempre in questi frangenti giunse il momento di svolta in cui quello che ne restò dell’impero sovietico ricominciò a rinascere mutando da impero comunista a democratico sotto la guida di un leader nuovo, un leader di ferro: Putin, un Presidente che riportò la nuova Russia a riprendersi l’antico poter e ritagliando per essa il precedente ruolo di seconda potenza mondiale. Il mondo della politica però è in continua evoluzione ed oggi ci troviamo alle prese non solamente con un mondo bipolare formato dai due incontrastati leader di sempre USA e Russia; la bilancia oggi non avrebbe più due bracci ma tre, anche il braccio della Cina, terza potenza mondiale che trainata dalla super produzione e dalla nuova conseguente ricchezza starebbe lavorando per ritagliarsi il ruolo appunto di terzo polo mondiale in fatto di produzione industriale ma anche in fatto di armamenti. Possiamo dire che questa terza nazione sarebbe già in possesso del primato in fatto di esercito più numeroso al mondo se contassimo la popolazione cinese, un esercito che neppure le bombe atomiche potrebbero fermare (come sostenne un tempo Mao Zedong) Per tornare ad oggi vediamo sullo scacchiere mondiale un mondo per ora diviso per in due poli principali, due poli perfetti: USA e Russia, quest’ultima soprattutto starebbe portando ad una corsa al riarmo non indifferente. Saremmo oggi di fronte ad una corsa agli armamenti molto pericolosa in un mondo in grave recessione, un connubbio di particolari che in genere genera i conflitti. Ricordiamo che la recessione e la corsa agli armamenti avrebbero portato ai due sanguinosi conflitti passati ma un terzo conflitto mondiale potrebbe innescare una escalation molto pericolosa. L’accordo ratificato nel 1987 da Reagan e Gorbaciov con lo scopo di limitare le postazioni di missili in Europa grazie al quale furono smantellati ben 2692 missili cui 846 USA e 1846 URSS che chiuse definitivamente la guerra fredda oggi viene “mandato in pensione” dall’attuale Presidente Trump con la scusa che la Russia di Putin ultimamente l’avrebbe violato unilateralmente. «Finché qualcuno viola questo accordo, non saremo gli unici a rispettarlo» in questo modo si esprime in merito il Presidente Trump spiegando le proprie intenzioni ad uscire dal trattato sul disarmo e sul controllo delle armi nucleari con la Russia, «Porremo fine all’intesa che Mosca viola da anni». Una volta ritirati dall’ RangeNuclear Forces Treaty detto INF gli USA cercheranno di instaurare una nuova intesa con Cina e Russia, contrariamente avrebbe minacciato Trump, anche gli USA ricominceranno a produrre nuove armi. John Bolton consigliere del Tycoon avrebbe avuto l’incarico di dirigersi a Mosca per incontrare Sergei Lavrov quindi organizzare un secondo summit fra Trump e Putin ancora nel 2019. Si pensa che l’occasione propizia possa essere la giornata per il centenario della fine del primo conflitto mondiale che si terrà l’11 novembre a Parigi, tuttavia gli interessati non si sbilanciano prevedendo anche la possibilità di una seconda data come l’incontro in occasione del G20 del 30 novembre. Gli USA starebbero cercando il sostegno di Putin per risolvere le questioni siriane e nel frattempo imprimere una certa pressione su Iran e nord Korea gli avversari di sempre. Il Ministro Sergei Ryabkov non nasconde che la decisione USA di uscire dal trattato possa essere una mossa molto pericolosa. In segretario della difesa UK Gavin Williamson si sarebbe detto al fianco degli Stati Uniti accusando Mosca di aver messo in pericolo il trattato chiedendo sempre alla Russia di iniziare a mettere ordine. In un articolo del Financial Times il ministro britannico sosterrebbe il fatto che la Russia si sia beffata del trattato. Comunque sia l’idea che la Russia abbia agito con furbizia cercando di bypassare il trattato non è solamente un’idea di Trump. Il primo a denunciare alcune violazioni sarebbe stato l’ex Presidente Obama che a suo tempo accusò il leader russo di dispiegare armi nucleari tattiche a scopo di intimidazione per fare pressione sui paesi ex soviet ora facenti parte del gruppo NATO, tuttavia l’ex Presidente nonostante non avesse buoni rapporti con la Russia “digerì il rospo” e decise di rimanere nell’accordo per non pregiudicare la pace con una nuova corsa agli armamenti. Stando alle fonti dell’amministrazione USA una volta usciti dal trattato Trump modificherà la strategia sullo scacchiere mondiale dispiegando i missili nucleari in Asia per contrasto alla Cina nella zona del Pacifico occidentale. In attesa della produzione di armi più moderne gli americani si dicono pronti a modificare i missili di vecchio tipo Tomahawk per renderli maggiormente efficienti ed installarli nelle basi USA di Guam, in Giappone. Terzo passo successivo all’uscita dal trattato sarà il rafforzamento del sistema missilistico in UE. Gli USA starebbero tenendo sotto osservazione il programma missilistico portato avanti dalla Cina (che in verità non avrebbe mai firmato il trattato del 1987) ed il suo ammodernamento mentre il secondo polo, la Russia starebbe ultimando un potentissimo missile ipersonico. Oggi 2019 possiamo quindi affermare che il mondo, (a meno che non ci sia una svolta nel prossimo summit di fine anno come sinceramente auspico) sia di nuovo in pericolo seduto ancora una volta su una polveriera ma ancora più grande della prima mentre non solamente qualcuno per diletto si fuma una sigaretta ma accende petardi buttandoli a destra e sinistra. Ricordiamoci comunque come già detto che un terzo conflitto mondiale a componente nucleare non farebbe ne vincitori e ne vinti (per enunciare il grande Einstein) tuttavia il mercato delle armi ancora una volta potrebbe contribuire a portare il mondo fuori dalla crisi economica che per lo meno in UE sembra interminabile, potrebbe a mia opinione portare denaro ai gruppi bancari internazionali. Dopotutto se devo fare l’avvocato del diavolo, penso che la produzione di armi convenzionali o meno sia un grandissimo buisness, in grado di fare girare il volano economico di parecchi stati purtroppo però, una volta che si venisse in possesso di una qualsiasi arma prima o poi la tentazione di utilizzarla potrebbe divenire talvolta molto forte……

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Nicola Migliorini alias ADMIN è Direttore del blog WWW.MONDOOGGI.COM decide cosa e quando pubblicare, è un giornalista con incarico a 360 gradi

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