ELEZIONI ITALIANE IN AUTUNNO? SONDAGGI di Goldfinger

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Fammi indovino e ti farò ricco: così recita un vecchio adagio, vecchio ma sempre attuale. A chi non piacerebbe sapere anche solamente per legittima curiosità (dato che ormai si sa che torneremo presto alle urne pare possibilmente in autunno) cosa potrà accadere sullo scenario elettorale futuro? Per poter cercare di capire cosa in questo caso potrebbe riservarci il futuro esiste uno strumento: i sondaggi. I sondaggi non sono certamente il Vengelo pertanto potrebbero anche sbagliare od almeno non essere completamente affidabili tuttavia in genere funzionano e volenti o nolenti sono l’unico sistema che abbiamo per poter “prevedere il futuro” in casi come questi. Che tempo farà dopodomani? In questo caso la nostra giornata sarà tarata sulle previsioni del tempo, quale sarà lo scenario politico dopo le nuove elezioni? E vai di sondaggi. Possiamo dire che come le previsioni del tempo sbagliano di poco anche i sondaggi in genere possono dare una buona idea sul futuro politico della nazione interessata. Nel caso dell’ Italia dopo la crisi di Governo creatasi fra la Lega ed il Movimento 5 stelle, le due coalizioni populiste nazionali possiamo spiegare cosa dicono i sondaggi relativamente al futuro politico della nostra nazione, sondaggi per i quali ha parlato anche il Corriere della Sera proprio ieri. Posso affermare che la scelta di Salvini nello staccare la spina ad un Governo litigioso e poco risolutore è stata a mia modesta opinione molto tattica, l’extrema ratio, dato che Salvini ha dimostrato di sapreci fare in fatto di politica interna colmando in un certo senso le necessità odierne dell’Italia e previdentemente ha pubblicizzato tutto quanto sia stato realizzato, portato a termine, come fosse stato in piena campagna elettorale. A mio parere l’abile Ministro sapeva che prima o poi sarebbe successo quel che è successo ovvero il divorzio fra i due partiti alla dirigenza della “barca Italia” pertanto imperterrito ed a volte anche criticato non si è fermato ed ha continuato a dar luce a tutto quanto ha saputo realizzare, portando i cittadini a toccare con mano le proprie capacità, convincendoli del proprio vincente operato. Per quanto riguarda il prossimo futuro le proiezioni IPSOS parlano di un asset di comando assai differente dall’attuale con un Carroccio che guadagnerebbe parecchi seggi passando dagli attuali 125 ai 297 pertanto non lontano da una vittoria anche solamente correndo da soli ma non sufficiente per farlo. Tuttavia i seggi non arriverebbero ancora alla sufficienza dato che in questo caso alla Lega ne servirebbero 316 per Governare in solitaria ma con un valido alleato ovvero una coalizione di destra, in modo da poter avere una certa parità di intenti la Lega potrebbe anche superare tale soglia. Effettivamente se Salvini si alleasse con Fratelli d’Italia come si spera si aggiungerebbero altri 62 parlamentari. Se questa ipotesi prendesse forma il PD passerebbe da 114 a 135 deputati assieme a +Europa. Dalla parte opposta potremmo vedere un Movimento 5 stelle in netto calo che da 216 seggi attuali riuscirebbe a mantenerne 122 nel migliore dei casi. Uno degli scenari politici più probabili e maggiormente favoriti sarà come auspico l’alleanza leghista con fratelli d’Italia portando l’asse sovranista a ben 358 seggi in una formazione assolutamente dalle “spalle larghe” agli attacchi ed omogenea ma soprattutto con idee molto simili, pertanto sullo stesso binario ideologico. Dall’altra parte sarebbero più deludenti i risultati della concorrenza come il PD con soli 122 seggi, Movimento 5 stelle con soli 106 e FI che correrà in solitaria e passerebbe in questo caso dai 104 deputati a solamente 30. Questi sono i probabili scenari italiani del post elettorali, scenari che porterebbero ad un Governo finalmente forte, ed a mia opinione con relativa “salvezza” della nazione, un Governo che per il modo in cui potrebbe essere costituito sarà possibile che possa governare gli anni previsti senza ricorrere ad ulteriori crisi di Governo, un Governo finalmente risolutore in merito alle varie problematiche che fanno “restare indietro la nostra bella Italia” che come ho già accennato in un articolo precedente, le continue crisi di Governo sono solamente un forte segno di instabilità ed inaffidabilità sul piano politico ma purtroppo anche su quello economico.

 

Goldfinger
Author: Goldfinger

Goldfinger è un giornalista specializzato in misteri, opinioni politiche, religione, etica e società ha uno stile talvolta piuttosto controverso nelle opinioni, diciamo che in genere è “ fuori dal coro”, fuori dagli schemi tradizionali

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