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Credo che poter conoscere come stia andando il sistema economico del mondo possa interessare un po’ tutti ma in particolar modo, penso che possa interessare la maggior parte delle persone sapere come sarà la situazione economica mondiale nel prossimo futuro. Fammi indovino e ti farò ricco recita un antico adagio, ma di indovini non ce ne sono mai stati purtroppo. Credo che i grandi investitori del passato, quelli che hanno accumulato grandi fortune abbiano avuto un grande “fiuto”, ovvero una grande percezione dell’andamento dei mercati, del mercati azionari, della moneta dei vari paesi. Si sarebbe trattato di una dote naturale? E’ certamente possibile ma soprattutto credo si possa essere trattato di un’ innata capacità di analisi ovvero, la capacità di percezione di quei piccoli ma grandi messaggi che i mercati finanziari lanciano nei vari periodi. Forse proprio in questo senso starebbe il segreto del successo di alcuni personaggi che negli anni passati si sarebbero arricchiti investendo in un certo modo anzicchè in un altro. Anche oggi i mercati finanziari lanciano messaggi
agli investitori. Uno di questi è il tasso dell’oro. Il tasso del “pregiato metallo” potrebbe essere importantissimo per valutare a cosa il mondo andrà incontro in termini di inflazione. Per capire enuncerei una semplice regola:Più il tasso dell’oro è in salita più un evento traumatico creatore di inflazione si prevede sia vicino. Un evento traumatico? Certo economicamente traumatico ovviamente. Per capirci, una guerra mondiale potrebbe portare il tasso del “biondo metallo” alle stelle, dato che in caso di conflitto il denaro potrebbe perdere valore e quindi gli investitori potrebbero correre all’ acquisto dell’unico bene rifugio esistente al mondo: l’oro. Comunque sia non è il nostro caso, si tratta solo di un esempio, una guerra mondiale grazie a Dio non è prevista e spero non lo sia mai quindi, non preoccupatevi. In questo caso il tasso dell’oro in salita potrebbe lasciar presagire l’arrivo di un periodo che potrebbe essere protagonista dell’entrata in scena dei un aumento inflazionistico a livello mondiale. Si proprio l’inflazione, quella parola non proprio molto amata dai tecnocrati UE. Prenderemo spunto da un articolo uscito sul quotidiano “Il Giornale” per spiegare la dinamica della “corsa all’oro” di questo delicato periodo. Che lo si voglia o meno pare che un periodo inflazionistico stia per giungere creando quindi una perdita del valore del denaro, di conseguenza ad una “corsa all’oro” da parte degli investitori decisi a non perdere i propri soldi. L’esplosione dei prezzi relativamente al “biondo metallo” a cui oggi assistiamo con il Futures ai massimi avrebbe toccato i tassi degli esordi del Futures il lontano 1975. Che alimentano l’ attuale “corsa all’oro” a cui oggi assistiamo sarebbero diversi fattori come le tensioni USA e CINA, gli interessi bancari sotto lo zero che oggi sarebbero applicati in vari paesi al mondo, tuttavia la regola numero uno è sempre la stessa: l’oro sale quando si prevede inflazione. L’ attuale stato di pandemia avrebbe contribuito a livello mondiale a risvegliare la “corsa all’oro”, complici vari fattori come il piano di rilancio
UE di circa due trilioni di Euro ma anche il fatto che anche gli USA, date le difficoltà dovute al Covid, potrebbero mettere in atto a fine mese un piano di aiuti per il contrasto dei disagi economici provocati dal virus. Anche il fatto delle vicine elezioni presidenziali USA potrebbe pesare in fatto di inflazione americana. Trump per cercare di essere rieletto potrebbe intervenire immettendo nel sistema americano altra moneta quindi provocare un certo tasso inflazionistico la cui conseguenza potrebbe essere ancora la “corsa all’oro”. Il problema debitorio degli stati starebbe diventando pesante. Un tasso limitato di inflazione a livello mondiale potrebbe portare ad un controllo del debito. I Policy makers fra l’altro la vedrebbero di buon occhio finchè poca. In caso di forte inflazione, (scrive Il Giornale) significa elettori incattiviti e questo fattore sarebbe un vero problema. Nel mondo oggi ci troviamo di fronte ad un grande circolo di denaro, troppi soldi usciti dalle banche centrali, e questo potrebbe portare alla “divisa americana” un certo vento favorevole. Noi generalmente amiamo i titoli o sui massimi oppure sui minimi, dato che per queste due tipologie di titoli è possibile applicare strategie specifiche come i Trend Following nel caso di titoli ai massimi ed i Mean Reverting nel caso di titoli ai minimi. Se i titoli fossero a metà non si potrebbe applicare nulla. Il Dollaro americano che abbiamo notato avere nel primo balzo un buon trend orientato verso i massimi nell’ultimo semestre, potrebbe essere candidato ad una possibile strategia di Trend Following sempre che si mantenga sopra i massimi storici pertanto potrebbe vivere un buon periodo.
Comunque sia sarà le settimana ventura che potrà essere molto importante per decidere il fattore stabilità. Se i prezzi avranno toccato i massimi storici e crolleranno subito si potrà pensare che i massimi storici rimarranno tali. Se così non fosse i prezzi congestioneranno a cavallo dei massimi storici per una settimana o due. Quest’ultimo fattore potrebbe quindi presagire una nuova “corsa all’oro” che potrebbe durare per parecchio tempo.
Author: Goldfinger
Goldfinger è un giornalista specializzato in misteri, opinioni politiche, religione, etica e società ha uno stile talvolta piuttosto controverso nelle opinioni, diciamo che in genere è “ fuori dal coro”, fuori dagli schemi tradizionali
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