Dopo circa un mese dall’ apparizione prepotente del Coronavirus, dopo i disagi dovuti all’ isolamento imposto dal Governo italiano per cercare di arginare la situazione e fare in modo che il contagio possa essere fermato (imitando il modello cinese) certamente gli italiani, si chiederanno quando finirà questo incubo, un disagio che avrebbe portato a numerosi decessi e che starebbe mettendo a dura prova non solamente i nervi degli italiani costretti a rimanere in casa ed uscire (se veramente necessario), con la preoccupazione
di potere subire un contagio da Covid, una situazione che starebbe mettendo a dura prova anche le precarie finanze degli italiani che proprio a causa dell’isolamento non starebbero lavorando. Il Governo avrebbe messo in atto alcuni ammortizzatori sociali “tampone” che a mio parere sarebbero insufficienti per poter mantenere in un periodo lungo la nazione in questa situazione di austerity tuttavia meglio poco di nulla. Ricordo che il virus ha espresso tutta la propria aggressività proprio sulle tre nazioni più produttive d’Italia come la Lombardia, il Veneto e l’Emilia, provocando un chiaro disagio economico a livello nazionale con il rischio di un pericoloso effetto domino in merito al futuro economico destinato a portare, date le previsioni, ad una cospicua perdita del Prodotto Interno Lordo italiano per il 2020 ma anche per il 2021. Penso che le ripercussioni economiche dureranno parecchio tempo e l’Italia dovrà quindi “leccarsi le ferite” per molti mesi, data anche l’aggravante che (secondo le ultime risposte dell’ Europa) proprio in questo periodo la UE non avrebbe perso tempo per mostrare il proprio vero volto di “nullità e di egoismo allo stato puro”. Se qualcosa quindi in UE non dovesse cambiare credo che l’Italia dovrà arrangiarsi da sola e questo potrebbe mettere la nostra nazione ad una letterale “prova dei carboni ardenti”. Comunque sia dopo questo prologo necessario per dipingere la situazione italiana odierna in un quadro globale certamente gli italiani staranno chiedendosi fino a quando dureranno questi disagi, fino a quando questo virus continuerà a spargere morte e disperazione. Nonostante nessuno possegga il “vaso di Pandora” con vera soddisfazione,
sono lieto di annunciare le varie news che parlano della situazione odierna, quindi di comunicare che sembrerebbe che si inizi a “vedere la luce nel tunnel” ovvero che i contagi siano tendenzialmente in fase di parabola discendente. Dopo questa bella notizia procederemo a spiegare una news dell’ Istituto Einaudi che avrebbe azzardato una previsione per quanto riguarda la decrescita e la fine dei contagi in Italia, regione per regione. Sulla base di quanto fornito dalla Protezione Civile giorno per giorno e stimandone le variazioni giornaliere ma anche le loro evoluzione nel tempo, l’Istituto Einaudi per l’Economia e la Finanza (EIEF) avrebbe avviato uno studio specifico mirato all’ Italia ma non solo, anche al resto del mondo. L’EIEF avrebbe formulato nei confronti dell’ Italia delle proiezioni presumibilmente attendibili in merito ad eventuali date nelle quali la nostra nazione dovrebbe raggiungere il fatidico obbiettivo di contagio zero. Lo studio del progetto sarebbe stato affidato a Franco Peracchi affiliato all’Università di Tor Vergata Roma. Enunceremo quindi regione per regione tutte le date previste nelle quali in ogni distretto italiano dovrebbe terminare il contagio. Stando alla proiezione dell’Istituto la regione Abruzzo potrà vedere l’ arrivo del contagio zero l’ 11 aprile, la Basilicata il 7 aprile, la Calabria il 17 aprile, la Campania il 20 aprile, l’Emila Romagna il 28 aprile, il Friuli Venezia Giulia il 10 aprile, il Lazio il 16 aprile, la Liguria il 7 aprile, la Lombardia il 22 aprile, il Piemonte il 15 aprile, la regione Puglia il 9 aprile, la Sicilia il 14 aprile, la Toscana il 5 maggio, il Trentino alto Adige vedrà il giorno fatidico di contagio zero il 6 aprile, l’Umbria il 7 aprile, la Valle d’Aosta l’8 aprile, il Veneto il 14 aprile, (Sardegna, Marche e Molise in elaborazione).
Possiamo confermare quindi che stando a queste proiezioni a quanto pare il mese di aprile potrà essere risolutivo per la fine dei contagi e per poter vedere una parabola della virulenza in fase decrescente a parte la regione Toscana che arriverà a questo fatidico punto in ritardo di qualche giorno: nel mese di maggio. Personalmente penso che queste proiezioni possano dare almeno un’idea abbastanza precisa su quanto starebbe accadendo e sui tempi in cui la forma virale potrà iniziare a scemare, come pure un termine potranno iniziare ad averlo di conseguenza le restrizioni che, se le proiezioni avessero colpito nel segno, potrebbero iniziare seppur lentamente a portare verso un’apertura nel ritorno alla normalità. Per la prima volta in questo articolo stiamo parlando con vera soddisfazione in modo positivo. Il tempo cura come curano gli sforzi portati avanti da tutti gli italiani per il contenimento del virus. Spero che questa disavventura planetaria, almeno nei confronti della nostra belle Italia, possa portare ad un momento di effettiva maturazione. Auspico che dopo questa disavventura gli errori fatti in passato come ad esempio i cospicui tagli alla sanità non debbano più essere e finalmente si possa capire cos’è in realtà l’Unione Europea quindi si possa agire di conseguenza.
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Bruno Siciliano è un free lance generalista con incarico a 360 gradi
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