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Recentemente si è parlato spesso di aiuti economici da destinarsi a quei paesi dell’ eurogruppo oggi più in difficoltà, difficoltà non volute ed inaspettate a voler ben guardare. Il Coronavirus penso che nessuno se lo sia augurato. L’attuale pandemia, sarebbe stata una forma virale in grado di agire su due fronti, minando la salute umana da un lato ma dall’ altro canto anche la salute economica degli stati. In questo caso con l’ entrata in campo della “sindrome cinese” I paesi europei più in difficoltà sarebbero stati quelli della zona sud UE, con a carico i debiti pubblici più significativi fra cui l’Italia, che da una parte si trova realmente a dover avere a che fare con un debito pubblico altissimo ma dall’altra parte con una ricchezza pro capite in grado di pagare, volendo, lo stesso debito, pertanto si troverebbe in possesso di garanzie che potrebbero, un domani, coprire il proprio debito. Possiamo quindi affermare che l’Italia con la propria anomalia si attesti ad essere uno dei pochi paesi dell’area Euro con un “tesoro” in grado di intervenire, se necessario, a garanzia del proprio debito pubblico. Comunque sia l’idea del debito pubblico alto non piace ai paesi membri del nord Europa che al contrario avrebbero abbassato i propri debiti pubblici ma dall’altro canto non risulterebbero in possesso della ricchezza degli abitanti del belpaese. L’invidia rode come si suol dire, quindi i paesi del blocco nordico non sarebbero molto propensi a tendere una mano agli stati del blocco più a sud quindi già da un po’ di tempo avrebbero iniziato a bocciare le proposte per una vera unione europea stato, un stato vero e proprio che si farebbe carico degli oneri e degli onori.
I paesi del blocco nord avrebbero proseguito sull’idea dell’ austerity costi quel che costi ma scucire aiuti per i paesi del sud, nulla da fare. tirandosi se volessimo ragionare la “zappa sui piedi”. L’Europa tuttavia senza l’aiuto economico fra paesi UE potrebbe crollare sotto il peso dell’insensatezza e del proprio egoismo. Innanzitutto ricorderei che la nostra nazione non è la “Cenerentola” che tutti amano dipingere ma il terzo paese più potente economicamente in Europa dopo Germania e Francia. Stando ad un articolo uscito sul quotidiano “Il Giornale” il Washington Post avrebbe dichiarato che se l’Italia fosse costretta a lasciare la zona Euro ed a decidersi (finalmente) per una soluzione da: meglio soli che mal accompagnati, l’Unione Europea crollerebbe. Da un articolo apparso sul media americano si metterebbe in guardia l’economia europea ma si punterebbero i fari sull’Italia, un paese sempre a detta del quotidiano americano, che avrebbe come accennato in precedenza un alto debito ma sostenibile. Il quotidiano affermerebbe che dopo la recente crisi economica del 2010 l’UE potrebbe entrare in una seconda fase davvero buia concentrata sui debiti sovrani a meno che non intervenga al più presto. I paesi oggi più deboli della zona Euro sarebbero i cosiddetti Pigs e fra questi oltre l’Italia, in buona compagnia ci sarebbero Spagna, Irlanda, Grecia e Portogallo. Questi stati avrebbero lottato non poco nel periodo della crisi 2010 per poter evitare il fallimento a causa dei debiti pubblici di assoluto rilievo. La crisi in ambito Ue però (afferma il quotidiano) avrebbe visto una soluzione al momento in cui alla Grecia si sarebbe permesso di ridurre il proprio debito. In sostanza quando Mario Draghi si adoperò perché non ci fossero altri paesi della zona euro nelle condizioni di inadempienza
e quindi nacque il famoso “bazooka”. Tutto il sistema si sarebbe basato sulla fiducia dei mercati e sul passaggio di fine della crisi economica. Oggi invece vediamo una sorta di ritorno con la faccenda Coronavirus, ad un periodo in cui è iniziata una seconda crisi economica che in questo caso come la precedente avrebbe intaccato il mondo intero portandolo ad una recessione globalizzata. Germania 2020: Contrazione dell’ 8%, Francia 10%, Spagna 15%italia 18%, Grecia 15%. Questo sistema avrebbe fatto in modo che la fiducia dei consumatori crollasse per una seconda volta. Over the top i debiti pubblici cospicui di queste nazioni . La stima del debito per il 2020 vedrebbe al 73% del Pil la Germania segita dalla Francia con il 120%, l’Italia al 180% e la Grecia addisittura al 222%. La Germania avrebbe un rapporto debito/Pil in aumento, spiegherebbe il Washington Post, ma nessuno pensa possa essere inadempiente. Per Italia e Grecia invece la visione è diversa. Queste due nazioni sarebbero più vicine al livello di guardia anche se l’Italia non la si può paragonare alla Grecia. Secondo il W. Post proprio su questo punto l’ Europa dovrebbe intervenire con una sorta di salvataggio finanziario. Se così non fosse l’Italia potrebbe per forza di cose uscire dall’ Euro provocando un effetto domino trainando con se gli altri compagni di sventura provocando un vero terremoto finanziario in Europa. Organizzare un salvataggio finanziario è oggi possibile? Per alcuni analisti no, sarebbe molto difficile. Per un salvataggio oggi servirebbe una mole di denaro impensabile, circa un trilione di dollari (un miliardo di miliardi). Una seconda fase che potrebbe colpire al cuore
la UE potrebbe essere il fatto che la Corte Costituzionale tedesca possa impedire alla Germania di entrare in scena con qualche progetto di salvataggio. Senza i tedeschi (primi economicamente in UE) altri paesi membri potrebbero arrivare al fallimento. A rischio di default non sarebbe solamente la UE ma l’intero sistema occidentale che potrebbe doversi scontrare con una recessione in questo caso, davvero apocalittica. E se fosse invece la Germania ad uscire dalla Ue per salvarsi in extremis? Penso che in questo caso lo scenario non cambierebbe di molto.
Author: Goldfinger
Goldfinger è un giornalista specializzato in misteri, opinioni politiche, religione, etica e società ha uno stile talvolta piuttosto controverso nelle opinioni, diciamo che in genere è “ fuori dal coro”, fuori dagli schemi tradizionali
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